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Author (up) Iacone, F.; Martin, S.; Siciliani, L.; Smith, P.C. openurl 
  Title Modelling the dynamics of a public health care system: evidence from time-series data Type Report
  Year 2007 Publication Discussion Papers in Economics. University of York Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume Issue Pages  
  Keywords  
  Abstract The English National Health Service was established in 1948, and has therefore
yielded some long time series data on health system performance. Waiting times
for inpatient care have been a persistent cause of policy concern since the creation
of the NHS. This paper develops a theoretical model of the dynamic interaction
between key indicators of health system performance. It then investigates empirically
the relationship between hospital activity, waiting times and population
characteristics using aggregate time-series data for the NHS over the period 1952—
2005. Structural Vector Auto-Regression suggests that in the long run: a) higher
activity is associated with lower waiting times (elasticity = -0.9%); b) a higher
proportion of old population is associated with higher waiting times (elasticity
= 1.6%). In the short run, higher lagged waiting time leads to higher activity
(elasticity = 0.2%). We also find that shocks in waiting times are countered by
higher activity, so the effect is only temporary, while shocks in activity have a
permanent effect. We conclude that policies to reduce waiting times should focus
on initiatives that increase hospital activity.
Keywords: Waiting times, Dynamics, Vector Auto-Regression. JEL classification:
I11, I18, H42, H52.		  
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  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
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  ISSN ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes Approved no  
  Call Number Serial 926  
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